通过调研期刊、专著和数据库等资料,并结合实际调查,首先获知中国27个省(区)入侵动物数量及贸易数据,然后分析其进出口总额与外来入侵动物数量的相关性,筛选出拟合度最佳的模型作为预测模型,并采用S型曲线对各省(区)2018—2021年进出口总额进行模拟,最后基于模拟结果预测各省(区)外来入侵动物的数量,获知各省(区)外来入侵动物的数量增加量.结果表明:1)中国外来入侵动物数量随着贸易量的不断增加也在迅速增长,至2018年底已有260种,其中96%是由贸易有意和无意引入的;外来入侵动物的分布呈现东部和南部省(区)高,而西部和北部省(区)低的空间格局.2)中国进出口额累积量与外来入侵动物数量之间存在相关关系,曲线估计结果为对数模型拟合效果最佳.3)预测结果表明中国在未来仍面临大规模的外来动物入侵风险.截至2021年,安徽、福建、广东、广西、贵州、海南、河南、湖北、湖南、陕西、四川和云南12省(区)入侵种增量最高,将高于20种,而青海、甘肃、西藏、新疆和宁夏5省(区)入侵种增量将低于10种,并且入侵热点地区呈现出由南方及沿海地区向中部地区扩散的趋势.
Based on the reference that come from journals, monograph and related database and field investigation, the number of exotic plant and the trade data of 27 provinces(regions)in China were collected. The relationship between the number of exotic plants and the total imports and exports for each province(region)was analyzed. The model with the best fitting degree is selected as the prediction model and S-model was used to predict the total import and export of each province(region)from 2018 to 2021. Finally, the number of invasive plants in each province(region)was predicted and the increase in the number of invasive plants in each province(region)was predicted. The results showed that 1)the number of exotic plants increased rapidly with the increase of trade in recent years, there were 260 species by the end of 2018, the ratio of intentional introduction and unintentional introduction accounted for 96%, the distribution of invasive animals is high in eastern and southern provinces(regions), but low in western and northern provinces. 2)There is a correlation between the cumulative volume of import and export and the- DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1565.2020.06.012外来入侵动物在中国的分布格局及增长预测陈凤新1,蒙彦良2,陈名清2,张风娟2(1.河北大学 经济学院,河北 保定 071002;2.河北大学 生命科学学院, 河北 保定 071002)摘 要:通过调研期刊、专著和数据库等资料,并结合实际调查,首先获知中国27个省(区)入侵动物数量及贸易数据,然后分析其进出口总额与外来入侵动物数量的相关性,筛选出拟合度最佳的模型作为预测模型,并采用S型曲线对各省(区)2018—2021年进出口总额进行模拟,最后基于模拟结果预测各省(区)外来入侵动物的数量,获知各省(区)外来入侵动物的数量增加量.结果表明:1)中国外来入侵动物数量随着贸易量的不断增加也在迅速增长,至2018年底已有260种,其中96%是由贸易有意和无意引入的;外来入侵动物的分布呈现东部和南部省(区)高,而西部和北部省(区)低的空间格局.2)中国进出口额累积量与外来入侵动物数量之间存在相关关系,曲线估计结果为对数模型拟合效果最佳.3)预测结果表明中国在未来仍面临大规模的外来动物入侵风险.截至2021年,安徽、福建、广东、广西、贵州、海南、河南、湖北、湖南、陕西、四川和云南12省(区)入侵种增量最高,将高于20种,而青海、甘肃、西藏、新疆和宁夏5省(区)入侵种增量将低于10种,并且入侵热点地区呈现出由南方及沿海地区向中部地区扩散的趋势.关键词:外来入侵动物;分布格局;增长预测;进出口总额中图分类号:Q948 文献标志码:A 文章编号:1000-1565(2020)06-0637-10Distribution pattern and risk analysis of alien invasive animals in ChinaCHEN Fengxin1, MENG Yanliang2, CHEN Mingqing2, ZHANG Fengjuan2(1.School of Economics, Hebei University, Baoding 071002, China; 2.School of Life Sciences, Hebei University, Baoding 071002, China)Abstract: Based on the reference that come from journals, monograph and related database and field investigation, the number of exotic plant and the trade data of 27 provinces(regions)in China were collected. The relationship between the number of exotic plants and the total imports and exports for each province(region)was analyzed. The model with the best fitting degree is selected as the prediction model and S-model was used to predict the total import and export of each province(region)from 2018 to 2021. Finally, the number of invasive plants in each province(region)was predicted and the increase in the number of invasive plants in each province(region)was predicted. The results showed that 1)the number of exotic plants increased rapidly with the increase of trade in recent years, there were 260 species by the end of 2018, the ratio of intentional introduction and unintentional introduction accounted for 96%, the distribution of invasive animals is high in eastern and southern provinces(regions), but low in western and northern provinces. 2)There is a correlation between the cumulative volume of import and export and the- 收稿日期:2020-01-11 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(31972343);河北省科技厅软科学项目(20557676D) 第一作者:陈凤新(1966—),男,河北秦皇岛人,河北大学副教授,主要从事国际贸易学方向研究.E-mail: fengxinchen@126.com 通信作者:张风娟(1969—),女,河北唐山人,河北大学教授,主要从事入侵生物学方向研究.E-mail: fengjuanzhang@126.com第6期陈凤新等:外来入侵动物在中国的分布格局及增长预测number of invasive animals in China, the curve estimation results show that the logarithmic model has the best fitting effect. 3)The results show that China still faces the risk of large-scale foreign plant invasion in the future. By 2021, the invasive species of 12 provinces(regions)(Anhui, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Hainan, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Yunnan)have the highest increments, whose number will be more than 20 species. While the increase of invasive species in Qinghai, Gansu, Tibet, Xinjiang and Ningxia provinces(regions)will be less than 10. Invasion hotspots show a tendency to spread from the south and coastal areas to the central areas.
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