京津冀供应链中断风险下保障服务能力的枢纽选址策略

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1565.2025.03.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 供应链中断风险下的服务能力保障是京津冀协同发展的关键挑战.针对运输时间兼具随机与模糊双重不确定性的特征,提出一种基于非精确概率分布的单分配枢纽选址平衡优化模型.首先,通过引入平衡风险值约束,将运输时间的不确定性用可信分布与概率分布的联合形式进行量化,确保路径运输时间满足服务水平要求;其次,以总平均运输时间最小化为目标,构建平衡优化模型,并在梯形模糊参数与正态概率分布下等价转换为混合整数线性规划以实现高效求解.京津冀地区15个节点的案例研究表明:相较于传统随机优化方法,本文方法在双重不确定性下能够有效优化枢纽选址方案,最优枢纽位置对置信水平与运输期限的变化敏感度显著提升.研究结果为复杂不确定环境下区域物流网络优化提供了有效的决策支持.

关键词: 枢纽选址, 平衡优化, 双重不确定性, 非精确概率分布, 京津冀供应链

Abstract: Service capacity guarantee under the disruption risk of supply chain is a key challenge for the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Aiming at the characteristics of both random and fuzzy uncertainty of transportation time, this paper proposes an equilibrium optimization model of single allocation hub location based on ambiguous probability distribution. Firstly, by introducing the equilibrium value-at-risk constraint, the uncertainty of transportation time is quantified in the joint form of credibility distribution and probability distribution to ensure that the path transportation time meets the service level requirement. Secondly, the equilibrium optimization model is constructed to minimize the total average transportation time. It is equivalently converted to mixed integer linear programming to realize the efficient solution of the model under trapezoidal fuzzy parameters and normal probability distribution. The case study based on 15 nodes in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows that compared with the traditional stochastic optimization method, the proposed method can optimize the hub location scheme under dual uncertainty, and the sensitivity of the optimal hub location to the change of confidence level and transportation time limit is significantly improved.The research results provide effective decision support for- DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1565.2025.03.001京津冀供应链中断风险下保障服务能力的枢纽选址策略陈艳菊,殷方浩,刘彦奎(河北大学数学与信息科学学院,河北保定 071002)摘要:供应链中断风险下的服务能力保障是京津冀协同发展的关键挑战.针对运输时间兼具随机与模糊双重不确定性的特征,提出一种基于非精确概率分布的单分配枢纽选址平衡优化模型.首先,通过引入平衡风险值约束,将运输时间的不确定性用可信分布与概率分布的联合形式进行量化,确保路径运输时间满足服务水平要求;其次,以总平均运输时间最小化为目标,构建平衡优化模型,并在梯形模糊参数与正态概率分布下等价转换为混合整数线性规划以实现高效求解.京津冀地区15个节点的案例研究表明:相较于传统随机优化方法,本文方法在双重不确定性下能够有效优化枢纽选址方案,最优枢纽位置对置信水平与运输期限的变化敏感度显著提升.研究结果为复杂不确定环境下区域物流网络优化提供了有效的决策支持.关键词:枢纽选址;平衡优化;双重不确定性;非精确概率分布;京津冀供应链中图分类号:C934 文献标志码:A 文章编号:1000-1565(2025)03-0225-10Hub location strategy for ensuring service capability of supply chain in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under disruption riskCHEN Yanju, YIN Fanghao, LIU Yankui(College of Mathematics and Information Science, Hebei University, Baoding 071002, China)Abstract: Service capacity guarantee under the disruption risk of supply chain is a key challenge for the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Aiming at the characteristics of both random and fuzzy uncertainty of transportation time, this paper proposes an equilibrium optimization model of single allocation hub location based on ambiguous probability distribution. Firstly, by introducing the equilibrium value-at-risk constraint, the uncertainty of transportation time is quantified in the joint form of credibility distribution and probability distribution to ensure that the path transportation time meets the service level requirement. Secondly, the equilibrium optimization model is constructed to minimize the total average transportation time. It is equivalently converted to mixed integer linear programming to realize the efficient solution of the model under trapezoidal fuzzy parameters and normal probability distribution. The case study based on 15 nodes in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows that compared with the traditional stochastic optimization method, the proposed method can optimize the hub location scheme under dual uncertainty, and the sensitivity of the optimal hub location to the change of confidence level and transportation time limit is significantly improved.The research results provide effective decision support for- 收稿日期:2024-05-04;修回日期:2024-12-27 基金项目:河北省社科基金资助项目(HB21YJ029) 第一作者:陈艳菊(1978—),女,河北大学副教授,主要从事随机优化、平衡优化及其应用方向研究.E-mail:yanjuchen@hbu.edu.cn 通信作者:刘彦奎(1963—),男,河北大学教授,博士生导师,主要从事不确定性最优化理论方向研究.E-mail:yliu@hbu.edu.cn 第3期陈艳菊等:京津冀供应链中断风险下保障服务能力的枢纽选址策略河北大学学报(自然科学版) 第45卷regional logistics network optimization in complex and uncertain environment.

Key words: hub location, equilibrium optimization, dual uncertainty, ambiguous probability distribution, supply chain in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

中图分类号:

C934

陈艳菊,殷方浩,刘彦奎. 京津冀供应链中断风险下保障服务能力的枢纽选址策略[J]. 河北大学学报(自然科学版), 2025, 45(3): 225-234.

CHEN Yanju, YIN Fanghao, LIU Yankui. Hub location strategy for ensuring service capability of supply chain in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under disruption risk[J]. Journal of Hebei University(Natural Science Edition), 2025, 45(3): 225-234.

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