Predictive method of emergency supplies demand based on multiple fuzzy linear regression model

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1565.2017.04.001

Abstract

Abstract: In order to improve the prediction accuracy, based on the characteristics of emergency supplies demand prediction, the symmetric triangle fuzzy numbers were introduced in this paper to describe fuzzy feature of effect factors of emergency demand.The emergency supplies demand prediction method based on multiple fuzzy linear regression model was proposed, the parameter estimation method of the proposed model was presented.Finally, a numerical example shows that the method is valid.The results show that the disaster level, the affected population and the damage area are important factors influencing the emergency supplies demand prediction.To deal with the uncertainty attribute in the process of predicting emergency demands, using the symmetric triangular fuzzy number to represent the fuzzy attributes can improve the accuracy of emergency supplies demand prediction.

Key words: symmetric triangle fuzzy number, emergency supplies, emergency supplies demand prediction, multiple fuzzy regression

CLC Number:

GUO Zixue, HAN Rui,QI Meiran. Predictive method of emergency supplies demand based on multiple fuzzy linear regression model[J]. Journal of Hebei University (Natural Science Edition), 2017, 37(4): 337-342.

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