Abstract: Project portfolio selection is the core of project portfolio management and is crucial to achievement of the enterprise strategic objective. The unique development characteristic of innovative enterprise determines that employee competence is a key factor in project portfolio management activities. It is worth noting that in the evaluation of employee competence, the characterization of competence value is affected by a lot of uncertainties. To deal with the situation of competence distribution information partially known, the parametric interval-valued distribution is used to characterize the uncertain parameter in the problem, and a maximum credibility project portfolio selection model is proposed. Further, the analytic expressions about the portfolio income and human resource constraints are derived, and the equivalent parametric programming form of the original model is obtained. Finally, the validity of the proposed model and methodology is illustrated by an example.

Key words: project portfolio selection, employee competence, interval-valued distribution, credibilistic optimization