Prediction of the risk of offenders based on big data

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1565.2016.06.014

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the analysis of current status of offenders recidivism prediction and risk assessment,we proposed an architecture system of identification and prediction of the risk of offenders based on big data.Aiming at different value density and different data types,in the model layer of the system,we described application algorithm of identification and prediction of offenders risk for the statistical model,outlier detection model,integrated classification model of architecture system. In particular,using R software package,we conducted integrated classification identification and prediction experiments,and gives the classification prediction error.The architecture system of identification and prediction of the risk of offenders is based on big data,can realize personalized and accurate early warning for offenders risk,and provide a reliable guarantee for the safety of offenders supervision in the big data era.

Key words: risk assessment, identification, prediction, big data, algorithm

CLC Number:

TP393.08

MA Guofu,WANG Zixian,MA Shengli. Prediction of the risk of offenders based on big data[J]. Journal of Hebei University (Natural Science Edition), 2016, 36(6): 657-666.

References

[1] 黄晨.近年10起重大越狱案件一览[EB/OL].http://www.caing.com/2011-09-15/100302744.html,2011-09-15/2015-12-16.
[2] 中商情报网.黑龙江嫌犯杀警越狱盘点:近年国内越狱大案件[EB/OL].http://mil.askci.com/military/2014/09/04/93322wofp.shtml,2014-09-14/2015-12-16.
[3] 王婷婷,张莹.媒体盘点近7年12起越狱案[EB/OL].http://news.china.com/domestic/945/20141103/18922977_all.html,2014-11-03/2015-12-16.
[4] 环球军事网.中国最严重的监狱越狱案件分析[EB/OL].http://www.huanqiumil.com/a/40936_2.html,2015-06-10/2015-12-17.
[5] 何川,马皑.罪犯危险性评估研究综述[J].河北北方学院学报:社会科学版,2014,30(2):67-73. HE C,MA A.Research overview on criminal risk assessment[J].Journal of Hebei North University:Social Science Edition,2014,30(2):67-73.
[6] 胡庆生.行刑方式的文明进步-上海市积极拓展社区矫治新空间[N].法制日报,2003-08-04(8).
[7] 黄兴瑞,孔一,曾贇.再犯预测研究-对浙江罪犯再犯可能性的实证分析[J].犯罪与改造研究,2004(8):8-13. HUANG X R,KONG Y,ZENG Y.Prediction of recidivism-empirical analysis of the possibility of recidi-vism in Zhejiang[J].Research on crime and transformation,2004(8):8-13.
[8] 邬庆祥.刑释人员人身危险性的测评研究[J].心理科学,2005,28(1):222-224.DOI:10.16719/j.cnki.1671-6981.2005.01.063. WU Q X.A research on the appraisal of the personal dangerousness of persons released after completion of a sentence[J].Psychological Science,2005,28(1):222-224.DOI:10.16719/j.cnki.1671-6981.2005.01.063.
[9] 章恩友.罪犯心理矫治[M].北京:中国民主法制出版社,2007.
[10] 曾赟.服刑人员刑满释放前重新犯罪风险预测研究[J].法学评论,2011(6):131-137.DOI:10.13415/j.cnki.fxpl.2011.06.003. ZENG Y.Prediction of risk of redivism before the offenders released from prison[J].Law Review,2011(6):131-137.DOI:10.13415/j.cnki.fxpl.2011.06.003.
[11] 孔一,黄兴瑞.刑释人员再犯风险评估量表(RRAI)研究[J].中国刑事法杂志,2011(10):91-106. KONG Y,HUANG X R.Study of recidivism risk assessment list for released offenders[J].Journal of Chinese criminal law,2011(10):91-106.
[12] 段晓东.科学分析狱情之管见[J].中国监狱学刊,2005(1):67-70. DUAN X D.The scientific analysis on the situation of prison[J].Journal of Chinese Prison,2005,(1):67-70.
[13] 翟中东.国际视域下的重新犯罪防治政策[M].北京:北京大学出版社.2009.
[14] 曹建路.成年服刑人员人身危险性评估体系的建构[D].金华:浙江师范大学,2013. CAO J L.Construction of personal danger evaluation system on adult prisoners[D].Jinhua:Zhejiang Normal University,2013.
[15] 徐英兰.罪犯狱内危险度评估量表的研制[D].上海:上海师范大学,2015. XU Y L.The risk assessment scale of criminals in prison[D].Shanghai:Shanghai Normal University,2015.
[16] 孙岳芳,俞凯.假释罪犯人身危险性评估机制研究[J].法制与社会,2013(5):216-217. SUN Y F,YU K.Research on the mechanism of the personal risk assessment of offenders on parole[J].Legal and Social,2013(5):216-217.
[17] 张雪霏.社区矫正中人身危险性评估的三阶段划分及应用[J].开封教育学院学报,2015,35(10):259-260.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1008.9640.2015.10.123. ZHANG X F.Three stage division and application of personal risk assessment in community correction[J].Journal of Kaifeng Institute of Education,2015,35(10):259-260.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1008.9640.2015.10.123.
[18] 王茜,张刚景.实现单敏感属性多样性的微聚集算法[J].计算机工程与应用,2015,51(11):72-75.DOI:10.3778/j.issn.1002-8331.1306-0317. WANG Q,ZHANG G J.Microaggregation algorithm for single sensitive attribute diversely[J].Computer Engineering and Applications,2015,51(11):72-75.DOI:10.3778/j.issn.1002-8331.1306-0317.
[19] 童云海,陶有东,唐世渭,等.隐私保护数据发布中身份保持的匿名方法[J].软件学报,2010,21(4):771-781.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1001.2010.03466. TONG Y H,TAO Y D,TANG S W,et al.Identity-reserved anonymity in privacy preserving data publishing[J].Journal of Software,2010,21(4):771-781.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1001.2010.03466.
[20] SWEENEY L.k-anonymity:A model for protecting privacy[J].International Journal of Uncertainty,Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems,2002,10(5)(2002):557-570.
[21] DWORK C,MCSHERRY F,NISSIM K,et al.Calibrating noise to sensitivity in private data analysis[J].Theory of Cryptography,2006,3876:265-284.DOI:10.1007/11681878_14.
[22] MCSHERRY F,TALWAR K.Mechanism design via differential privacy[Z].48th Annual IEEE Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science,Washington,2007.
[23] HE X,MACHANAVAJJHALA A,DING B.Blowfish privacy:tuning privacy-utility trade-offs using policies[Z].Proceedings of the 2014 ACM SIGMOD international conference on Management of data,New York,2014.DOI:10.1145/2588555.2588581.
[24] 黄灿.数据发布中隐私保护关键技术的研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2010. HUANG C.Research on key technologies of privacy protection in data publishing[D].Nanjing:Nanjing Uni-versity of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2010.
[25] 唐世渭,童云海.数据仓库技术在金融行业的深度应用和发展趋势[J].中国金融电脑,2010(7):22-25. TANG S W,TONG Y H.Advanced application and development trend of data warehouse technology in financial industry[J].China Financial Computer,2010(7):22-25.
[26] 孙培梁.智慧监狱[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2014.
[27] 赵彦云,田茂再,吴延科,等.大数据时代统计学的重构与创新[J].统计研究,2015,32(2):3-9. ZHAO Y Y,TIAN M Z,WU Y K et al.Reconstruction and innovation of statistics in the era of big data[J].Statistical Research,2015,32(2):3-9.
[28] 吉根林,赵斌.面向大数据的时空数据挖掘综述[J].南京师大学报(自然科学版),2014,37(1):-1-7. JI G L,ZHAO B.A Survey of spatiotemporal data mining for big data[J].Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2014,37(1):1-7.
[29] HAN J W,KAMBER M,PEI J.数据挖掘概念与技术[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2015.
[30] 易锦,罗峋,凹建勋,等.基于马尔科夫链的软件故障分类预测模型[J].中国科学院大学学报,2013,30(4):562-567.DOI:10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2013.04.019. YI J,LUO X,AO J X,et al.Software fault classification prediction model based on Markov chain[J] Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2013,30(4):562-567.DOI:10.7523/j.issn. 2095-6134.2013.04.019.
[31] 高志伟,姚尧,饶飞,等.基于漏洞严重程度分类的漏洞预测模型[J].电子学报,2014,41(9):1784-1787.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0372-2112.2013.09.018. GAO Z W,YAO Y,RAO F,et al.Predicting model of vulnerabilities based on the type of vulnerability severity[J].Chinese Journal of Electronics,2014,41(9):1784-1787.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0372-2112.2013. 09.018.
[32] 孙菲菲,曹卓,肖晓雷.基于随机森林的分类器在犯罪预测中的应用研究[J].情报杂志,2014,33(10):148-152.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2014.10.025. SUN F F,CAO Z,XIAO X L.Application of an improved random forest based classifier in crime prediction domain[J].Journal of Intelligence,2014,33(10):148-152.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2014.10.025.
[33] 李欣海.随机森林模型在分类与回归分析中的应用[J].应用昆虫学报,2013,50(4):1190-1197.DOI:10.7679/j.issn.2095-1353.2013.163. LI X H.Using random forest for classification and regression[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Entomology,2013,50(4):1190-1197.DOI:10.7679/j.issn.2095-1353.2013.163.